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America's Changing Faith in Higher Education: A College Consensus Poll Importance of Tra­di­tion­al 4-Year College Expected to Decline

Higher Education Consultant
B.A., M.A., Ph.D.
Gabe is a higher education consultant and former English professor with a doctorate in English from University of Georgia. With over a decade of experience in higher education, Gabe has taught at nearly every kind of institution, from major R1 public universities to small liberal arts colleges to community colleges.
Founder/Senior Editor
B.A., M.Div.
Jeremy Alder has spent over a decade researching and writing about higher education to provided students with the information they need to achieve their goals. He has significant personal experience with career transitions, working as a freelance writer and editor, non-profit director, community organizer, preacher, teacher, retail manager, and carpenter prior to founding College Consensus. Homeschooled from the second grade, Jeremy is a graduate of the University of Texas at Austin (B.A., Philosophy) and Duke University Divinity School (M.Div.). He currently lives in North Carolina with his wife, five kids, and a Labradoodle named Hank.

Key Takeaways:

  • Americans still largely trust traditional higher education, but not as much as they used to
  • Nearly half of Americans believe traditional college education will decline in importance in the next decade
  • Americans view trade school as offering almost equivalent ROI to traditional college
  • Trust in community college and online college is lower than traditional, but still strong 
  • Technology bootcamps struggling to gain trust

Are Americans Losing their Faith in Higher Education? 

For generations, we’ve clung to the idea that a college degree will lead to a satisfying career and financial stability. Higher education in the US is as all-American as the Fourth of July and plastics. 

But in 2023, a Gallup poll found that only 36% of Americans had a high level of confidence in higher education (either “a great deal” or “quite a lot”). The number was down significantly since 2018 (48%) and 2015, when a majority (57%) trusted higher education to lead to success.

News pundits worried that it was part of a larger lack of trust in American systems. Educators worried that it this lack of trust would mean fewer students and the collapse of higher education. Political figures of all types argued about student loan debt, the economy, and indoctrination in schools. 

But what does a lack of confidence in higher education value actually mean? Is it even true? At College Consensus, we wanted to know for ourselves. That’s why we commissioned a poll of our own.

Partnering with Pollfish, we asked 500 Americans from a variety of backgrounds what they think of higher education today. Respondents included an equal number of men and women, and equal numbers drawn from each of five age groups:

  • 18-24
  • 25-34
  • 35-44
  • 45-54
  • >54
390600840 Q1 How important do you believe education is for achieving career financial satisfaction  column chart

What Do Americans Think of Traditional 4-Year Degrees? 

Our findings were a little more promising for traditional higher education than Gallup’s. More than 50% answer that they either mostly trusted or completely trusted in a traditional 4-year degree to lead to career and financial satisfaction. And lower levels of trust were low, with just 21.8% saying they had only slight or no trust at all. 

Trust in Traditional CollegePercentage
Completely trust19.40%
Mostly trust31.20%
Moderately trust27.60%
Slightly trust12.20%
Do not trust at all9.60%
Source: College Consensus Poll, July 2024

There are lots of valid reasons for Americans to lose their confidence in traditional higher education. Higher education does not come cheap. The cost of college has doubled since 2000, rising at a far faster rate than inflation. Americans have nearly $1.8 trillion in student loan debt, with the average balance of around $40k per graduate. The FAFSA fiasco that began in fall 2023 has further shaken confidence. 

Not surprisingly, for those who said they had a lower level of confidence, the overwhelming reason was cost – 56%, in fact. 

390600840 Q5 If you have a lower level of trust   Slightly  or  Do not    what factors contribute to that feeling   Select all that apply  column chart

However, those who still have a strong sense of confidence trust that students get a higher quality of education from traditional 4-year colleges than other avenues. 55% cited Quality of Education as their reason for feeling confidence in higher education. 

390600840 Q4 If you have a higher level of trust   Completely  or  Mostly    what factors contribute to that feeling   Select all that apply  column chart

There’s no question about it – for generations, Americans have trusted a higher degree to lead to career and financial satisfaction. And while times have changed, the majority of respondents still believe that the quality of a traditional college education outweighs all other education options. 

Do Americans Have Confidence in Community College and Online College? 

Community college has long been an affordable, convenient way for people to earn college credits. It’s accessible, with most community colleges offering open admissions. And community colleges have always offered people the chance to study, if not from home, at least without having to leave their own community. 

In other words, community college has conventionally done the job that many thought online education would take over. The higher education system has been expanding online education hard since the 2000s. From the early days of shady for-profit diploma mills, today nearly every major university has a sizable online presence. Some formerly campus-based institutions, like Arizona State University, now have more online students than traditional students. 

The College Consensus poll finds some interesting parallels in how Americans view community college and online college. Only 13% of people responding to the poll felt that community college was the best route to career and financial satisfaction. And online college scored even lower – just 7.8% thought online was the best way to go. 

Even if respondents don’t think community college is the best route, they still hold it in high regard. 51.8% of respondents mostly or highly trusted community college to lead to career and financial satisfaction. That’s a much higher level of trust than online college, which only got 41.4%. 

390600840 Q6 How much do you trust community college to lead to career financial satisfaction  pie chart

Respondents still have their doubts about community college. For those who had a lower level of trust, the main concern was quality of education at 31%. Meanwhile, more than half those who felt a high level of trust saw affordability as the key. 

Interestingly enough, the outcomes for online college – the 4-year variety – were actually quite similar to community college. The answers surprised us. 

Despite the push for online education, especially in the last decade, trust in online education is still shaky. As we mentioned, only 41.4% of respondents had a high level of trust. The strongest answer was “Moderately trust” at 28.8%. 

390600840 Q9 How much do you trust online college to lead to career financial satisfaction  pie chart

And what were respondents’ reasons for trusting or distrusting online college? Like with community college, those who trusted online college pointed to affordability as the main factor (45%). And, once again, those who had a low level of trust pinned it on quality of education (38%). 

We couldn’t help but notice more people 24-44 years old responded that they “mostly trust” online college, while people under 24 and over 44 only “moderately trust” or “slightly trust” it. Is Gen Z, the internet generation, more skeptical than Millenials and Gen Xers? It would be a question worth pursuing in further research. 

What Do Americans Think About Trade Schools? 

Considering how much attention online education gets, we were surprised to find that respondents actually trusted trade schools more than an online 4-year degree. Does that indicate a rise in interest in trade schools, like experts have been suggesting? 

Respondents even see traditional college and trade school as having a comparable return on investment – 36.6% for traditional college vs 32.4% for trade school. People see a trade school education as a good investment! 

390600840 Q18 In your opinion  which educational path offers the best overall return on investment  ROI   column chart

You really begin to see the difference when you break down answers by age. Older people trust trade school more than younger people: 

Mostly Trust Trade Schools

Age GroupPercentage
55-64 years old47%
45-54 years old47%
35-44 years old35%
25-34 years old36%
18-24 years old31% 
Source: College Consensus Poll, July 2024

On the face of it, that response shouldn’t be surprising. After all, people in the older age range have been in the workforce longer, and seen the career and financial advantages of trade school. Well-trained and experienced electricians, plumbers, and other skilled tradespeople can make very high incomes in the middle and late careers. That’s especially true if they are successful enough to start their own companies and hire apprentices and assistants. 

That may also be why people 45-54 actually felt trade school had a better ROI than a traditional 4-year degree – 41% for trade school over 34% for college. Not only that – when asked which path was most likely to lead to career satisfaction, 45-54 year olds were the only ones to rate trade school higher than traditional 4-year college! 

390600840 Q18 In your opinion  which educational path offers the best overall return on investment  ROI   column chart age group

Younger people, on the other hand, have seen less of the working world and may view trade careers as less desirable than professional careers. However, the differences are not so extreme. 31% of 18-24 year olds view trade school with trust. 

Among those who have doubts, there’s no real consensus about why: 

Lower Level of Trust in Trade School

Quality of education20.80%
Networking opportunities20.40%
Job market demand for degrees21.00%
Societal expectations23.60%
Affordability24.00%
Personal experience15.80%
Not applicable40.20%
Source: College Consensus Poll, July 2024

Concerns about quality of education, networking opportunities, job market demand, societal expectations, and affordability were all in the same range, between 20-24%. The highest answer was Not Applicable at 40.2% 

In recent years, the US government has made major investments in trade education. Maybe those efforts to increase the profile of trades are working. 

Do Americans Trust Tech Boot Camps? 

Even though technology boot camps are hyped in the media and heavily marketed, they don’t seem to have won over the respondents in our survey. Opinions were decidedly mixed. 

Trust in Tech Boot Camps

Level of TrustPercentage
Completely trust10.20%
Mostly trust19.00%
Moderately trust31.40% 
Slightly trust20.00%
Do not trust at all19.40%
Source: College Consensus Poll, July 2024

Less than a third of respondents moderately trusted boot camps, and a much larger percentage had low levels of trust than high levels (39.4% low, 29% high). 

Tech bootcamps are a niche educational avenue – highly specialized, relatively new, and unproven. There’s an enormous amount of variation in bootcamps: 

  • Some are extremely expensive; some are cheaper than community college. 
  • Some provide guaranteed job placement; others leave graduates on their own. 
  • Some are backed by real colleges; others are for-profit companies. 

Add to that the fact that there is essentially no regulation of boot camps, and it’s not surprising that many Americans still don’t trust them. While traditional colleges, community colleges, and trade schools are usually accredited, bootcamps are basically self-policing – no outside entity is holding them accountable. 

That means career and financial satisfaction from a bootcamp is more of a gamble, and sure enough, only 5.4% of respondents thought bootcamps were the best route to the good life. 

However, about a third (32.4%) thought that bootcamps offered a good avenue for networking. In the tech industry, where job seekers typically get hired based on connections, they might be right.  

390600840 Q16 If you have a higher level of trust in technology bootcamp   Completely  or  Mostly    what factors contribute to that feeling   Select all that apply  column chart

What Can We Learn About Higher Education in America? 

The College Consensus poll underscores some things we already know about higher education in America. People still trust traditional 4-year college education, but are worried about debt. They still see trades as a viable way to a satisfying, well-paying career. And they’re still a little iffy about newer options like online college and tech bootcamps. 

What we found most surprising, though, is that despite the lack of faith in alternative education paths, a shockingly large number of people believed that college would be less important in 10 years. In fact, 44.8% thought that the importance of college would decrease! 

390600840 Q21 Do you believe the importance of a traditional 4 year college degree will increase  decrease  or remain the same in the next 10 years  column chart

On the other hand, 33% of the the younger participants in the poll – the traditional college-aged 18-24 year olds – felt that the emergence of alternative educational paths had given them a slightly more positive view of traditional college. 

390600840 Q20 How has the rise of alternative educational paths impacted your view of the traditional 4 year college path  column chart

It’s hard to reconcile these views, opposite as they seem. The high proportion of people who think college will decrease in importance may just reflect anxiety about the future rather than anything about college specifically. And the positivity that younger people feel about traditional education may be influenced by the ruptures of the past few years. 

In an era of pandemic, economic anxiety, and political instability, the security of a traditional 4-year degree may look desirable to young people, even as other more experienced adults doubt the long-term prospects of traditional education. And it may be true that that stability is a thing of the past – if it ever existed.

The hard truth of life in the world-turned-upside down of the 2020s is that we’re in an age of self-determination. There are very few sure things anymore. And even though that’s likely to cause a lot of people anxiety, it also means a lot of hope for people who were traditionally left out in the cold. There is more opportunity for minorities and marginalized people than ever before. Online learning and bootcamps are just at the start of democratizing higher education. And locally-based education like community college is tried and true, but also endlessly changeable.

If people perceive the old system as unstable and breaking down, either the system will have to change, or people will. And people are the most adaptable creatures on Earth.

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