College Consensus is beginning an ongoing series on how higher education is changing, and how it got here.
There’s a growing sense of unease about the state of higher education in America. Forces both internal and external are forcing schools to reconsider their purpose and systems.
Concerns about affordability, relevance, and even the value of a college degree have shaken confidence in higher ed. As institutions grapple with declining enrollment, rising student debt, and a widening skills gap, the need for innovative solutions has never been more urgent.
Higher education’s evolution is growing due to technological advancements, evolving student expectations, and a need to prepare graduates for a rapidly changing world. American universities are exploring new frontiers in learning:
- the rise of online learning
- the integration of artificial intelligence
- the growing emphasis on skills-based education
From escalating costs and shifting demographics, to the demands of a workforce in flux, higher ed is transforming. But what is it transforming into?
That’s what College Consensus wants to help parents and prospective students understand – where higher education stands, where it might be going, and what that means for the students of tomorrow.
Trends in Higher Education and Where They’ve Led Us
The ongoing narrative for the last generation has been that higher education is going off the rails.
- Tuition costs have increased exponentially
- Millions of Americans have student loan debt they fear they can never pay off
- Colleges pump billions of dollars into athletics and cut budgets for actual education
In a College Consensus poll, we found that only half of Americans trust that a 4-year degree will lead to career satisfaction. That’s more than the 36% that a Gallup poll found, but still much lower than earlier generations.
For most of the people concerned about higher education, cost was their top priority. However, a majority of people polled still felt that a traditional 4-year degree had a higher quality of education than alternative paths like bootcamps and certifications.
And even though most people responding still trust community colleges and trade schools to give students a good footing in the job market, trust in online degrees is still low. In CC’s poll, only 41% of respondents trusted an online degree to have a positive career impact.
But What About Online Degrees?
Even with that skepticism, another College Consensus poll found people from all backgrounds choosing online degrees. Polling people who had attended an online program, we found that the highest proportions of people getting an online degree had either
- Taken some college courses without finishing their degree, or
- Had a master’s degree
So it turns out online college appeals to people who want to finish their college degree, or those who already have a graduate degree and want to specialize and further professionalize! Not surprising, when 65% of online degree seekers are already working a job.
Of course, all those concerns above – especially cost – also drove online learners. Cost was overwhelmingly the reason for choosing which program to take (63%), and had a major impact on choosing an online degree at all (37%)
So online higher education hasn’t exactly turned over higher education. But it has come to be seen as an effective strategy for making more money and getting a better job. The Department of Education found that in 2021 61% of college students were enrolled in at least one online course. 28% were exclusively taking online courses.
But There’s Good News Too!
We know that, over the last 10 years or so, there have been some positive developments. For instance, even though tuition is continuing to go up, the rate of inflation is getting better. According to the Education Data Initiative, tuition cost is finally starting to line up with the inflation rate, after decades of increasing much faster than inflation.
That’s a good sign – even though the cost of college tuition is increasing, it’s keeping pace with other cost increases instead of going up astronomically, like it did in the 80s and 90s.
There are good signs when it comes to student debt, too. Student loan debt is still increasing, but over the last 10 years it’s also leveled off. In fact, 2022-2023 was the first year ever that the total student loan debt in the US actually decreased.
The student loan default rate has also declined, from 11.5% at its highest before 2020 to just 2.3% in 2022. There are a lot of reasons for that good news:
- The Department of Education cracking down on predatory loans
- Increased oversight of for-profit colleges
- Debt relief plans after the Covid-19 pandemic
Universities, colleges, and community colleges have also made intentional efforts to rein in tuition costs and provide more financial support for students. For instance, Harvard University recently declared tuition would be free for any students whose families earn less than $200,000 per year. The Ivy Leagues have always been generous though – if you can get in, that is.
Another great development in higher ed has been the rise of the $10k bachelor’s degree. Beginning with initiatives in Texas and Florida, the idea of the affordable bachelor’s degree – mostly concentrated around community colleges – has sparked a nation-wide movement.
Of course, these low-cost, streamlined degrees are usually in highly in-demand, career-focused fields – degrees like:
- Accounting
- Cybersecurity
- GIS
- Healthcare Management
- Nursing
- Public Safety
- Special Education
- Supply Chain Management
The shift from liberal education (in the traditional sense of “well-rounded,” not the political sense) to career-oriented education has rubbed a lot of old-school folks the wrong way. But it has also meant more access and opportunity for thousands of Americans who were denied a higher education in earlier years.
